We go to devagar. exaggerated optimism can take the new disillusionments history. a mention to the fact in presidential speech even though is programmed. the current Selic, of 11,25%, already was practised by five months between 2007 end and beginning of 2008, before a new scaling of the interests when the international prices of commodities were in high and threatened the inflation. Impact of the fall of the SELICPara to increase the expectation, to follow we elencamos the impacts of the tax of interests: – in the economic activity: in thesis, the interests lowest can stimulate the level of production for two ways (selling at a loss the consumption and the new investments), but in the current situation of crisis do not advance to reduce the cost of the money if the banks resist in loaning and the people and companies resist in taking loaned. – in the inflation: lower interests also can be a risk to the inflation at moments where the demand is very warm, what it is not the current case; in contrast, some indices of prices in the attacked one already point deflation and indicate that recess exists to fulfill the goal of inflation of 4,5% not only in 2009 as 2010.
– in the exchange tax: if the tax of interests in Brazil is kept well higher of what in the remaining portion of the world, this stimulates the foreign investors to apply its dollar in our Country, mainly in headings of the public debt. The dollar entrance helps to close the external accounts, but also it can pressure the Real if disproportionately value in relation to the dollar, creating new problems for the exporters. – in the fiscal balance: more than the half of the headings of the public debt is atrelados to the Selic tax defined for the Central banking; that is, the more low the Selic, minor are the cost that the paid government for its debt. If the cost is lower, the government can keep its balanced debt exactly reducing its primary surplus (economy for payment of interests), as announced recently. – in the saving: if the tax of interests to fall below of 10%, the net income of the deep ones of fixed income kept by the banks could be lesser of what of matching-fund saving account, that is equivalent 0.5% to the month more variation of the TR. Currently, the saving is relieving about 7,3% to the year. – in the macroeconomic stability: the reduction of the Selic in Brazil can create in the financial market an environment favorable to a reduction permanent (and not only transitory) of the interests, what it would approach the cost of the money in Brazil of that one practised in the developed one. Bibliography: Magazine That is Money, edition 603 of 29 of April of 2009Jornal the State of So Paulo of 26 of April of 2009